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02/Data

From signed pledges to today's tenders

What Europe has committed, and which countries are at the forefront.

Live, World Bank open data

Fetching from World Bank open data.

Pledges

Six commitments signed since March 2025

Each carries a figure and a date.

The floor became a target

Wales 2014 against The Hague 2025

NATO defence spending pledgeThe 2014 Wales floor of 2 percent of GDP compared with the 2025 Hague pledge of 5 percent, split into 3.5 percent core defence and 1.5 percent security-related spending, to be met by 2035.0%1%2%3%4%5%Wales floor 20142.0%2.0%Hague pledge 20353.5% core defence1.5% security5.0%SHARE OF GDP

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Twenty-three members reached the 2 percent floor in 2024, against three in 2014. All thirty-two signed the Hague pledge. Spain holds a letter on its path to the capability targets. Sources: NATO, 25 June 2025; IISS.

Sweden to 2030

Share of GDP

Swedish defence spending as a share of GDPSwedish defence spending rises to 2.8 percent of GDP in 2026, is projected at 3.1 percent by 2028 and targets 3.5 percent by 2030, meeting the NATO core defence line.2.8%3.0%3.2%3.5%NATO CORETARGET 3.5%2.8%2026BUDGET BILL3.1%2028PROJECTED3.5%2030TARGETSWEDISH DEFENCE SPENDING, SHARE OF GDP

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Source: Government of Sweden, September 2025.
European and Swedish defence commitments on the record
Commitment Scale By Source
NATO, The Hague pledge 5.0% of GDP 2035 NATO, June 2025
NATO, core defence 3.5% of GDP 2035 NATO, June 2025
EU, SAFE lending EUR 150 bn Readiness 2030 EEAS, March 2025
EU, ReArm Europe EUR 800 bn Readiness 2030 EEAS, March 2025
Sweden, 2026 Budget Bill SEK 26.6 bn 2026 Government of Sweden
Sweden, military defence SEK 170 bn To 2030 Government of Sweden
Sweden, conscription intake 8 500 rising to 10 000 2026 to 2030 Nordic Defence Sector

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Being bought

Ongoing development in the defence and security industry

  1. Fetching from the EU procurement journal.

Tenders Electronic Daily, the five military CPV groups.

Money and people

Capital arrived faster than people

Twenty-one specialist funds now compete for the same small number of teams. In 2022 there were eight.

581 000

People employed in European defence, 2023

European Defence Agency via ASD Europe

61%

Of European defence firms cannot fill cyber-physical roles

European Defence Agency

21

Specialist defence funds active in Europe, against eight before 2022

Vestbee, 2025 review

Private capital into European defence

USD bn, Europe

European defence and resilience venture fundingEuropean defence, security and resilience startups raised a record 8.7 billion dollars in 2025, up 55 percent on 2024 and roughly four times the level of five years earlier.02.55.07.510.02.2†20205.6†20248.72025RECORD YEARUSD BN RAISED, EUROPEAN DEFENCE, SECURITY AND RESILIENCE STARTUPS

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Daggered bars are derived: 2024 from the reported 55 percent rise, 2020 from the reported fourfold gap. Sources: Resilience Media; Vestbee.

The hiring constraint

2025 to 2026

Staffing constraints in European defenceSixty-one percent of European defence firms cannot fill cyber-physical systems roles, more than seventy percent of defence roles in Sweden and the Netherlands require baseline vetting, and specialist defence funds took part in thirty-four percent of European defence rounds in 2025.Cannot fill cyber-physical rolesOF EUROPEAN DEFENCE FIRMS61%Roles requiring baseline vettingIN SWEDEN AND THE NETHERLANDS70%+Specialist funds in defence roundsSHARE OF EUROPEAN ROUNDS, 202534%THE CONSTRAINT IS NOT CAPITAL

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The EDA names autonomy, cyber, data and software roles as the hardest to fill. Sources: EDA via ASD Europe; Murray McIntosh; Vestbee.
Sweden Marker area follows spending as a share of GDP. The lit side is real time.

On the map

In 2024 Spain spent 1.4 percent of GDP on defence, Sweden 2.0, Poland 4.2, and Ukraine 34.5

How each figure is sourced

Two official sources

Germany's 2024 defence spending reads 1.4 or 1.9 percent of GDP, depending on which official source you take

Eurostat counts defence inside the national accounts. SIPRI counts military expenditure, which reaches wider. Which of the two you plan against changes the size of the market you are planning for.

Fetching both series.

Eurostat gov_10a_exp, COFOG GF02, share of GDP. World Bank MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS, compiled from SIPRI. Both pulled live.

Sources

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